Russia's Foreign Power is Crumbling After Invading Ukraine

Since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Moscow's foreign influence has taken a major shift downward. What began as an attempt to reassert a sphere of influence on a former Soviet puppet-state has led to economic decline, diplomatic isolation, and weakening relationships among its allies. As the war continues, the foreign policy costs for Russia continue to mount --- reshaping its influence across Europe, the Middle East, and even within its borders.

(1) Losing Alliances

Russia’s longstanding alliances — especially in the Middle East and post-Soviet sphere — are facing severe tests.

Iran, historically a strategic partner, has been critical in extending Russia’s reach by hosting Russian military personnel and providing ballistic missiles. Yet when Iran was left defenseless by an Israeli airstrike earlier this year, Russia offered little in response. Though the partnership may continue, the event marks a visible strain in what was once viewed as a mutual-defense alignment.

Syria, another longtime ally, faced a similar course. Russia stood by as President Bashar al-Assad lost significant territory to rebel forces, weakening Russia’s influence in the region.

Elsewhere, support is softening:

• Kazakhstan has declined to recognize Russia’s annexation of Ukrainian territory.

• Armenia is shifting away from Russian weapons in favor of French and Indian alternatives.

Israel's Iron Dome Countering Missiles Launched by Iran. July 2025.

Perhaps more troubling for the Kremlin are the internal cracks. Anti-war protests continue to surface across Russian cities, including Moscow. A 2023 survey by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs found that only 49% of Russians believe the economy has improved, while 45% say the war has worsened the nation’s international influence. Though official narratives still project national unity, growing pessimism about the economy could spell long-term trouble for President Putin’s government.

(2) The Loss of Manpower

The cost in human life and military hardware has been sore spot for the Russian government. According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), more than 250,000 Russian soldiers have died, and total casualties — including injuries — exceed 950,000, making this the most deadly conflict for Russia since World War II.

This high death toll is largely due to Ukraine’s successful defense — bolstered by billions of dollars in Western aid, equipment, and intelligence. The United States and European Union have played central roles in disrupting Russian advances and prolonging the conflict far beyond Moscow’s expectations. With continued U.S. support and no end in sight, Russia's military losses are likely to deepen.

(3) NATO Expansion and Growing EU Unity

NATO

Russia has long opposed NATO's eastward expansion — a core justification for its aggression in Ukraine. But the invasion has had the opposite effect.

Since 2022, NATO has added two new member states, most notably Finland, which shares an 833-mile (1,340-km) border with Russia. President Putin has warned of “problems” with the alliance’s expansion and pledged to establish a new Leningrad Military District in response.

NATO Members Preparing for an official photograph during a summit meeting in The Hague, Netherlands.

At the same time, NATO countries have committed to increasing defense spending significantly, with a new target of 5% of GDP by 2035, up from the previous 2%. Rather than weaken NATO, Russia’s aggression has strengthened and expanded it.

European Union

Within the EU, public support for unity is also on the rise:

• A Euro News poll reports that 74% of EU citizens believe their country benefits from EU membership.

• 89% support greater EU unity in addressing global challenges.

• 62% believe the EU should play a more active role in international affairs — a 6-point increase from the previous year.

  
  

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has emphasized peace and security as core EU priorities, and 3 out of 4 EU citizens now say the EU is on the right path in responding to conflict and foreign adversaries.

(4) Economic Standing

All of these pressures have compounded to hurt Russia’s economy. Western sanctions have targeted major Russian oil and gas producers, restricted access to international markets, and forced companies out of Russia. The country’s GDP has dropped more than 2%, with further contraction expected.

Although the Russian government has downplayed the impact, analysts and global financial institutions warn that long-term economic stagnation is likely unless Russia shifts course on Ukraine.

Conclusion

The war between Russia and Ukraine has resulted in devastating losses for both countries. While the war ending still has an uncertain future, the foreign policy of Russia has taken a devastating loss since the conflict began three years prior. Now, the question is whether Russia will continue its strategy of extending Russian influence with the costs being so high.

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